Bitcoin has kicked off 2026 on a good note, starting with the price breaking through the $94,000 barrier in early January, a threshold it hadn’t traded at for weeks. The surge wasn’t the result of a single cause, but rather a convergence of changing power between buying and selling pressure, improving institutional interest, on-chain signals pointing to a stabilizing market, and unexpected political developments in Venezuela that seem to have contributed to an appetite for risk assets.
Geopolitical Risk-On Sentiment And Institutional Flows
One of the important forces behind Bitcoin’s push towards $94,000 was the willingness among investors to take on risk across global markets, a mood shift that was shaped in part by dramatic political developments in Venezuela.
News that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured by US forces caused a chain reaction through equities, commodities and crypto, lifting risk-on sentiment as traders assessed the broader economic and geopolitical implications of the event. Perhaps the most interesting news event is the chatter around a potential Venezuelan shadow $60 billion Bitcoin reserve.
This backdrop of rising confidence played into a broader return of institutional capital to Bitcoin. US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted significant net inflows at the start of 2026, with $116.95 million coming in on Friday, January 2 and $123.52 million coming in on Monday, January 5. These inflows helped lift the price of Bitcoin back into the low $90,000s and provided traction as buyers stepped in after the new year holiday lull.
On-Chain Metrics Shows A Changing Market Tone
According to analytical data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s market structure is stabilizing in the $80,000 to $95,000 range, sell pressure is beginning to fade, and momentum is beginning to recover. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index have moved into an upper-neutral zone, which shows a build-up in upside potential. Spot liquidity, though still thin, has expanded modestly without signs of speculative excess.
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Glassnode noted that open interest is rebuilding cautiously and that options markets point to short-term volatility, which is a sign of both increasing participation and lingering sensitivity to profit-taking.
On-chain activity also shows a reduction in sell-side aggression alongside modestly improving spot volumes. However, Glassnode noted that structural demand is still subdued, and this places the recovery above $90,000 as a fragile one.
Bitcoin Price Momentum. Source: @glassnode on X
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These on-chain activities, alongside news events, worked together to help Bitcoin clear a technical hurdle at $90,000 which served as resistance throughout December 2025. The question now is whether this move signals the start of a sustained advance back above $100,000 or a temporary peak within a still-uneven market landscape. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $92,780, down by 0.5% from its intraday high of $94,343.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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