Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said that exchange closures are not, by themselves, a reliable Bitcoin bottom indicator.
The crypto market is once again filled with speculation over whether Bitcoin has reached its cycle bottom. Recent exchange shutdowns have been fueling a popular narrative that such failures are a sign of a market turning point.
Crypto analyst Joao Wedson, however, said the data does not support that conclusion.
Debunking Popular BTC Bottom Theory
Wedson said only nine crypto exchanges and trading platforms have announced or completed shutdowns so far in 2026. This makes it the lowest annual total recorded in at least eight years and significantly below the number seen during the previous market cycle. According to the Alphractal founder, this directly contradicts claims that the recent closures point to a major Bitcoin bottom.
“This is exactly why data matters. Data helps eliminate narratives, unsupported conclusions, and assumptions that are repeatedly presented as facts by market analysts.”
Wedson’s comments came as several high-profile trading platforms, including BitMEX, AscendEX, and BitMart, announced plans to wind down operations in recent weeks. The closures have gone beyond a handful of well-known exchanges. Odos will end its operations on July 30, while Dango, known as the “Endgame Exchange,” is set to discontinue its Layer 1 blockchain on August 13.
In a separate development, decentralized cloud storage company Storj Labs voluntarily sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US Bankruptcy Court. These developments have prompted some market participants to argue that the closures resemble conditions typically seen near the end of a bear market.
Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, for instance, said such events tend to happen at the bottom of a market cycle. Moonrock Capital founder Simon Dedi described the shutdown of centralized exchanges as a bullish sign, while arguing that weaker business models fail during a bear market and leave room for a healthier market. Ivan Liljeqvist, better known as Ivan on Tech, also tweeted, “old has to die for new to grow.”
Back when FTX collapsed in 2022, Bitcoin fell to roughly $16,000, which ended up dragging the entire market lower. In contrast, the recent announcements have had little impact on price action as it trades near $63,500.
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Debate Continues
The market remains divided. But Grayscale is among those believing that the bottom may already be in. The asset manager recently said that Bitcoin has matured beyond the traditional four-year cycle and is now influenced more by macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, real interest rates, and expectations surrounding US Federal Reserve policy.
Meanwhile, analysts including Doctor Profit and Ali Martinez believe the current market presents an attractive accumulation opportunity. Doctor Profit has repeatedly pointed to the $54,000-$64,000 range as a historically strong buying zone, while emphasizing that building an average entry is more important than catching the exact bottom.
Martinez also echoed the bullish accumulation view after identifying that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has fallen to levels that previously coincided with seller exhaustion and the final stages of past bear markets.
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