Bitcoin has posted an August loss every year since 2022, giving traders another seasonal risk to consider.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) look set to finish July ahead of most major asset classes, with the former adding over 7% and the latter gaining almost 20% in the last 30 days.
The performance adds to a month of recovery for the two largest cryptocurrencies after a difficult first half of 2026, although historical data suggests August has been a much tougher month for BTC.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Lead July Returns
Data from CoinGlass at the time of writing showed that Ethereum had gained 19.5% during the month while Bitcoin had risen 7.37%. Meanwhile, a comparison by analyst Ash Crypto across major markets showed chip stocks fell 22% in the same period, with the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 slipping by 9% and 3%, respectively.
The S&P 500 also fell, but its decline was much smaller than that of its counterparts, at about 1%. Silver dropped by 2.64%, but gold was little changed, adding just 0.38% to its value over 30 days.
What makes the gains by the cryptocurrencies noteworthy is that before July, they had endured a rough 2026. CoinGlass data shows BTC fell more than 10% in January, as it continued a red run that had started in October 2025. That sequence continued into February, when the OG crypto lost almost 15%, before reprieves in March and April. May registered a -3.41% return and June recorded the worst drop of the year so far when the asset lost over 20% of its worth.
Ethereum’s first two quarterly performances were just as bad, with Q1 returns at -21.26% and those for Q2 at -25.28%.
Recall that BTC started July trading near $58,000 but gradually climbed the chart, hitting a monthly high near $67,000 last week before price action started cooling somewhat. It was pretty much the same with ETH, as CoinGecko data shows it kicking off the month near $1,500 and eventually ending up very close to $2,000 as July drew to a close.
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At the time of writing, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency was changing hands just above $1,900, having shed about 1% in the last seven days. However, despite the good monthly run, it’s still more than 50% lower than where it was a year ago and about 61% away from its August 2025 all-time high. Bitcoin, on its part, has settled near $64,000, which is almost half of its own ATH, after shrugging off the slight volatility that came with yesterday’s decision by the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged.
August Record Keeps Traders Cautious
While July brought relief for crypto investors, CoinGlass data points to a recurring seasonal pattern. Every August since 2022 has ended with Bitcoin posting a monthly loss, including declines of 6.49% in 2025, 8.6% in 2024, 11.29% in 2023 and 13.88% in 2022.
That backdrop has kept analysts divided on what comes next, with Ali Martinez forecasting that Bitcoin’s bear market could last until October, while traders Pepesso and Crypto Lens expect another move lower before a broader recovery begins in 2027.
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