A fresh technical analysis by market expert Egrag Crypto highlights two major scenarios that could shape the next potential XRP price rally. Drawing on historical price patterns and critical support levels, the analyst suggests that XRP could be on track for either a slightly conservative surge toward $9.6 or an explosive rally to $33.
XRP Price Retest Signals Path Toward $9.6
In his post released on X social media, Egrag Crypto highlights XRP’s market behavior during the 2021 cycle, particularly the cryptocurrency’s interaction with the 21 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and how it has played a role in fueling massive gains. At the time, XRP faced one of its most turbulent periods in its history.
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The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple had triggered a sharp drop, pushing the XRP price below the 21 EMA. This move disrupted the bullish structure that had supported XRP in earlier rallies, spreading uncertainty and fear across the market.
However, XRP eventually managed to reclaim the 21 EMA and hold it as a critical support level. The chart analysis shows that after the cryptocurrency executed a successful retest, it staged a powerful rebound, driving its price up by approximately 414%.
Applying this same percentage gain to XRP’s current market structure, the analyst presents his first bull rally scenario, projecting targets that point to a peak around $ 9.60. His chart analysis reveals that the current market setup resembles the key conditions observed in 2021, particularly with XRP’s recent retest of the 21 EMA on June 9 this year.
The Altcoin Faces Potential Moonshot To $33
Egrag Crypto’s second scenario for the XRP price outlook is modeled after its explosive rally during the 2017 cycle, when the 21 EMA acted as a powerful launchpad for growth. At the time, XRP bounced off this key support level twice, paving the way for a remarkable 1,610% rally.
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This breakout marked one of the most defining moments in XRP’s history, propelling the asset from sub-dollar levels to a fresh ATH around $3.84 at the peak of that bull cycle. If XRP repeats the 2021 cycle dynamics in 2025, Egrag Crypto forecasts that the measured move points to another 1,610% increase, potentially pushing the price to a more ambitious target of $33.
Such a rally would represent one of the strongest performances in XRP’s history, firmly establishing it as a standout asset in the market. With the US SEC lawsuit finally concluded and XRP completing its third retest of the 21 EMA this year, the conditions are aligning for a potential surge toward $9.6 or $33.
Currently, XRP is trading at $2.87, having declined in the past week by approximately 5%. While the cryptocurrency managed to reclaim the $3 resistance level briefly, it failed to sustain momentum and is now consolidating below this key threshold.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
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