Bitcoin Could Fall To $40k If Saylor’s Bid Stalls, Ran Neuner Warns

Ran Neuner says Bitcoin’s chart structure is starting to resemble the breakdown pattern that preceded the 2022 capitulation, with one key difference: this time, he argues, Michael Saylor’s Strategy may be the market’s most important marginal buyer.

Speaking with Scott Melker in a May 24 interview, Neuner said Bitcoin is sitting inside a “very scary structure,” pointing to what he described as a bear flag that has failed to resolve higher. His concern is not only technical. It is also tied to whether Strategy can keep raising capital through STRC, a preferred-stock instrument that Neuner believes has become central to Saylor’s ability to buy more Bitcoin.

“If history repeats, right, then we should break down or could break down below this,” Neuner said, referring to Bitcoin’s current chart pattern. “I hate saying it because look, I don’t even want to admit it to myself, but I mean definitely it’s going down to the $40ks or $50ks if it happens.”

The argument rests on a comparison with 2022. Neuner said Bitcoin previously dropped, formed a bear flag, retested the 200-day moving average, and then suffered a deeper leg lower after failing to reclaim the structure. He said the present setup looks like a “mirror image,” with Bitcoin again testing the bear-flag region and the 200-day moving average before rolling back into the range.

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But the sharper part of Neuner’s thesis concerns Strategy’s funding engine. He argued that Saylor’s recent Bitcoin purchases have depended heavily on STRC trading back toward $100 ahead of its ex-dividend date, allowing Strategy to issue shares, raise capital and deploy the proceeds into Bitcoin. The problem, in Neuner’s view, is that the window for that trade has been narrowing.

“Last month in May, it only pegged at 100 on the 11th of May when the XD date was the 15th of May,” Neuner said. “Whereas in the previous months, it pegged on the 25th of the previous month. So it should have pegged, if it was going to keep the trend, on the 25th of April. It only pegged on the 11th of May, right? Which meant that he only had four days to raise money.”

Neuner said that matters because Bitcoin’s recent rallies appeared to line up with periods when Strategy had more time to raise capital and buy. If STRC spends fewer days near $100, he argued, the market may begin to discount the absence of its largest recurring buyer.

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“If we carry on like last month and we have another month where he can’t raise money, eventually the market’s going to start discounting the fact that Saylor is not in the market anymore on STRC,” Neuner said. “Your biggest buyer at the moment is not in the market anymore.”

Melker pushed back on the idea that STRC would collapse without a major credit event, noting that the product is linked to Strategy and indirectly backed by its Bitcoin position. Neuner did not describe STRC as a Ponzi or suggest wrongdoing. His concern was more mechanical: he said he does not understand why the instrument must trade at $100 when holders still receive the dividend below that level.

The discussion also widened into macro risks. Neuner cited rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation, oil prices, and the possibility that large SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs could drain liquidity from risk assets. He said Treasury yields and equities cannot both keep rising indefinitely, arguing that “one of them has to give.”

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $77,033.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com