Ethereum Fate Hangs On This Weekend: Breakout Or Breakdown?

As the end of the month approaches, Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to end February above the crucial $2,000 barrier. Some analysts have suggested that the upcoming monthly close could determine the fate of the King of Altcoin’s price trajectory.

Ethereum Trajectory Could Be Defined This Weekend

On Thursday, Ethereum briefly fell from its recent highs and retested the $1,980 level before bouncing. Notably, the cryptocurrency surged 11% on Wednesday morning, reaching a ten-day high of $2,148, then stabilized around the crucial $2,000 support.

Amid this rebound, market observer Trader Tardigrade highlighted that ETH has momentarily reclaimed a critical monthly level, which had been lost in the shorter timeframes.

The King of Altcoins is trading back above its multi-year trendline, suggesting that a potential price recovery rally could be coming if the level holds. Per the post, Ethereum “has a proven pattern: every time price holds above this ascending support trendline, it launches into a parabolic rally.”

ETH reclaims multi-year support trendline. Source. Trader Tardigrade on X

As the chart shows, the cryptocurrency displayed a similar trendline between 2018 and 2020, when the altcoin bounced from this support and embarked on a massive one-year rally toward its previous all-time high (ATH).

Now, ETH shows a similar performance in the monthly timeframe, currently retesting the trendline that began forming in 2022. “If it holds here, history says we’re gearing up for another explosive climb,” the trader affirmed.

Similarly, analyst Rekt Capital noted that this multi-year trendline has been “a structural level that has defined the broader macro trajectory for several years.”

He stated that if Ethereum ends the month above this trendline, located around the $1,960-$1,970 area, “then price would have scope to rebound into the green region overhead,” between the $2,250-$2,500 levels. However, he warned that this key horizontal region has historically “not been kind to Ethereum across cycles.”

Deeper Correction In The Books?

Explaining ETH’s previous behavior around this level, Rekt Capital detailed that in 2022, once the price broke below this horizontal region in the monthly timeframe, it continued lower.

Meanwhile, Ethereum closed below this level again in early 2025, retested it, turned it into resistance, and resumed its correction toward the April 2025 lows around $1,385.

“So structurally, the green region remains a likely candidate for resistance unless Ethereum Monthly Closes above it and successfully turns it into support,” the analyst affirmed, cautioning that it seems less likely given the current bear market conditions.

Moreover, he warned that if ETH Monthly Closes below the multi-year support trendline, the $1,570-$1,670 horizontal zone, which was a prior demand cluster, could be revisited.

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“We have already seen downside wicking toward that orange region, but not a clean, picture-perfect retest. Losing the trendline would likely force price into that orange region more decisively and potentially even result in its loss as support,” he added.

As Rekt Capital stressed, if a macro uptrend is lost, there is limited buy-side momentum to support the price against further downside over time.

As of this writing, ETH is trading at $2,026, a 4.7% increase in the weekly timeframe.