XRP is showing signs of strength as it holds above key support levels, but the road to a breakout remains far from clear. While momentum off the trendline brings optimism, bearish divergences on higher timeframes are raising caution.
Bearish Divergence Signals Market Caution
CasiTrades, in a recent update, noted that XRP has managed to show some momentum after bouncing off the black trendline highlighted last week. The respect of this level is encouraging, but the market is not out of danger just yet. Its price still faces the critical $3 resistance, which remains the key hurdle to confirm the start of a new bullish trend. Until that level is broken, downside risks remain valid, with $2.79 (0.5 retracement) and $2.58 (0.618 retracement) identified as the main support zones.
However, the move from the trendline appears to be forming a clean ABC corrective pattern rather than a 5-wave impulsive rally. Price action has already rejected the targets for the C-wave, and bearish divergence has been spotted on the 4-hour chart. This combination of factors does not align with the characteristics typically expected at the beginning of a true Wave 3 breakout.
On the 1-hour RSI, XRP is now testing the lower support trendline, which CasiTrades is closely monitoring for confirmation of the next move. Looking ahead, the key level to watch is $2.69. Ideally, XRP avoids a new low beneath this zone, as that would force a reset of the wave count and shift the outlook.
However, a retest of $2.58 remains valid and could still serve as a springboard for a larger bullish move. The overall picture suggests XRP is at a pivotal stage: breaking through resistance could ignite a long-awaited rally, but failure here risks invalidating the bullish structure entirely.
XRP Supports Hold Firm As Momentum Builds
CasiTrades emphasized that XRP’s support levels remain unchanged for now, and the market is still waiting for one of these key zones to spark the momentum required to break through resistance. Without a decisive push, the price risks lingering in its current range while testing lower levels.
According to the analysis, a true Wave 3 breakout will only be confirmed when XRP cleanly clears the major resistance levels at $2.79, $3.00, and $3.25. These barriers must fall without hesitation or repeated rejection; otherwise, the price action would simply signal weakness and the likelihood of further downside testing.
CasiTrades also advised keeping a close watch on Bitcoin’s movements for broader market alignment, as well as on signs of bullish divergence forming during the next pullback. Once that momentum appears, XRP could finally have the setup to trigger the breakout that traders have been anticipating.
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